We update our original nine predictions (v1, April 3, 2026) with three additions. First, an honest status correction: six of nine predictions are genuinely prospective, one was acknowledged as confirmed in v1, and two were confirmed or terminated before publication (both in the predicted direction). Second, an expanded scorecard showing the coverage principle has 100% directional accuracy across 19+ Phase III immunotherapy trials: same-step combinations are 0-for-11+ (2B+ spent), multi-step combinations are 8+-for-8+. Third, specific falsifiable data predictions for each pending trial — not just win or fail, but predicted pCR rates, hazard ratios, ORR differences, and subgroup patterns. Four new predictions are added for trials reporting in 2026-2027. The coverage principle states that the effectiveness of a drug combination depends on how many distinct steps in the immune-tumour interaction it covers, not on how many drugs are given at the same step. All predictions are timestamped and falsifiable.
Raimo van der Klein (Sun,) studied this question.