Kurobe Dam, Kurobe basin, a snow–dominated mountain basin in central Japan with heavy winter snowfall and spring–early–summer melt, supplying substantial regional hydropower. We develop an integrated framework that couples the physically based distributed snow–hydrology model WEB–DHM–S with a parametrized reservoir operation scheme, Dynamic Zoned Target Release (DZTR). The framework first calibrates monthly DZTR storage–release thresholds against observed daily storage and hydropower releases (2007–2014), then propagates both inflow errors and parameter/snow–physics uncertainties through the dam system, and finally applies the calibrated rules under multiple CMIP6 climate projections (MIROC6 SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5, IPSL–CM6A–LR SSP5–8.5). We also compare daily and hourly calibrations and perform a one–at–a–time sensitivity analysis for key DZTR thresholds and snow parameters (rain–snow temperature and visible albedo). The framework reproduces seasonal operation patterns and provides a transparent testbed for rule‑curve redesign. Relative to observed‑inflow runs, inflow perturbations yield smaller elasticities for energy than for release timing, indicating that generation is comparatively robust. As a proof‑of‑concept under MIROC6 SSP5‑8.5, annual inflow increases by 20.6%, with earlier releases consistent with advanced melt. Rather than providing precise forecasts, the study demonstrates how a coupled WEB–DHM–D system can serve as a transparent testbed for assessing the robustness of snow–fed hydropower operations under a range of plausible future climates. • Integrates WEB‑DHM‑S (Hydrological model) snow hydrology with DZTR (dam operation) rules. • Validates coupled system at daily and hourly scales. • Tracks inflow‑error propagation to release/storage/energy. • Peak inflow advances by 10–30 days under SSP5‑8.5 (MIROC6). • Reservoir in snow dominated mountainous region.
Zhang et al. (Wed,) studied this question.