A Computational Framework for Modelling Conflict Dynamics and Peace Agreement Efficacy in South Sudan

This methodology article presents a novel computational framework for the quantitative analysis of conflict dynamics and peace agreement efficacy in South Sudan. It addresses the limitations of qualitative assessments by proposing a hybrid approach that integrates event data, network analysis, and agent-based modelling. The framework is designed to systematically process data from sources such as the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and the South Sudan Conflict Database to model actor interactions and simulate intervention scenarios. The article details the methodology's architecture, its application to a case study of the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), and presents preliminary evaluation findings. The discussion considers the implications of such computational tools for interdisciplinary peace and conflict studies, highlighting both their analytical potential and inherent limitations.