Enhancing Long-Term Forecasting Stability in Smart Grids: A Hybrid Mamba-LSTM-Attention Framework

Accurate multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is critical for smart grid operations. However, non-stationary distribution shifts frequently induce compounding error accumulation in conventional architectures. This study proposes the Mamba-LSTM-Attention (MLA) framework, a distribution-aware architecture engineered for forecasting stability. The pipeline integrates Reversible Instance Normalization (RevIN) to neutralize statistical drift. To address computational bottlenecks, the architecture utilizes a linear-time Selective State Space Model (Mamba) to capture global trend dynamics, cascaded with a single-layer gated Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) unit to model localized non-linear residuals. A terminal information bottleneck structurally bounds cross-step error propagation. Empirical results across standard ETT and Electricity benchmarks reveal a precision–stability trade-off. By prioritizing structural resilience, the MLA framework limits error accumulation on highly volatile datasets, yielding MSEs of 0.210 and 0.128 on ETTh2 and ETTm2 at the T = 96 horizon. This structural bottleneck inherently smooths high-frequency periodic patterns, yielding lower absolute accuracy on stationary benchmarks such as ETTh1 and ETTm1. Ultimately, the architecture establishes a computationally efficient, structurally stable baseline tailored for non-stationary anomaly tracking in smart grids.