Future Prospects of Solar Energy in Meeting’s Net-Zero and Vision 2030 Targets

The energy transition in Saudi Arabia is driven by the dual energy imperatives of energy security and competitiveness, along with the achievement of quantified reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The Saudi Green Initiative is the framework for the energy transition in the country, with the objective of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by the year 2060, while achieving milestones in 2030, such as the development of renewable energy and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions 2,3. On the other hand, the Ministry of Energy has established the development of renewable energy as part of the energy mix in 2030, along with the substitution of natural gas for oil-based energy carriers 4. The energy transition in the kingdom, with solar energy playing a major part, is driven by the exceptionally high solar resource and the opportunities for deployment. However, the achievement of the milestones for the energy transition involves the development of renewable energy as part of the energy mix, which is affected by issues such as variability, curtailment risk, and increasing flexibility. In this review, literature and other sources on the future prospects of solar energy for achieving net zero and Vision 2030 targets have been synthesized. Following the PRISMA 2020 guidelines for conducting a transparent review process 1, this review integrates available information on three aspects: (i) the effectiveness of solar technology in desert climates, especially with regards to solar energy loss due to heat and soiling, and strategies for operation and maintenance to reduce these losses 11, 12; (ii) strategies for the integration of solar energy systems, especially strategies for storage and demand management to reinforce the grid; and (iii) strategies for achieving targets, especially strategies for governance and market structures. This review synthesis draws on concepts borrowed from net zero grids, especially on decentralized coordination and the use of VPP aggregation to reduce curtailment and facilitate bi-directional participation in the energy system 15. This synthesis leads to three conclusions: (a) Solar energy competitiveness in Saudi Arabia is no longer a ‘resource problem’ but one of execution and integration; (b) Solar energy generated can be termed as ‘valuable energy’ if ‘flexibility and digital coordination’ play a crucial role in executing this vision; and (c) Learning can play a crucial role in achieving targets more efficiently and at a reduced risk premium. This review proposes a roadmap for solar-led decarbonization, which meets the requirements set by Q1 journal for methodological and managerial relevance.