Governing Water Security in the Horn of Africa: Institutional Frameworks and Conflict Prevention

This mixed-methods study investigates the potential for Morocco's domestic and transboundary water governance frameworks to serve as a model for institutional conflict prevention in the hydro-politically volatile Horn of Africa. It employs a quantitative analysis of water stress indicators and conflict data across the Horn, establishing a correlative landscape of hydro-political risk. This is complemented by a qualitative, process-tracing examination of Morocco's institutional architecture, including its National Water Plan, river basin agencies, and diplomatic 'water diplomacy' initiatives. The integrated analysis argues that Morocco's approach—characterised by integrated water resource management (IWRM), securitisation of water policy, and the instrumentalisation of water cooperation for foreign policy gains—offers transferable institutional lessons. The article concludes that adopting such a framework in the Horn could mitigate scarcity-driven conflicts by depoliticising resource management through robust institutions, though significant contextual adaptations would be required.