Diversifying mountain agricultural systems in Armenia: Land suitability assessment for crop transition and sustainable intensification

Mountain agricultural systems face acute production constraints, requiring evidence-based land-use planning to support crop diversification and sustainable intensification. This study assessed land suitability for eight crops (apricot, peach, pear, wheat, potato, cabbage, broccoli, and green bean) in Armenia's mountainous regions using an integrated Analytic Hierarchy Process and Geographic Information System (GIS) approach. Thirteen biophysical parameters, encompassing climate, topography, and soil properties, were evaluated using expert-derived, crop-specific weights, with elevation thresholds applied as strict constraints. Results revealed pronounced differences in land-crop matching efficiency across land-use types. Perennial crops exhibit strong spatial constraints: only 4.1% (4482 ha) of cultivable land was classified as highly suitable (S1), while the combined suitable area (S1+S2) reached 20,574 ha. Low to moderate overall efficiency (16.9–51.1%) highlights their sensitivity to climatic and topographical conditions. Wheat suitability analysis identified 10,369 ha (S1+S2) with moderate efficiency (43.6–55.5%), supporting national self-sufficiency objectives. Potato demonstrated the highest suitability (6490 ha S1, 13,527 ha S1+S2), indicating strong agroecological compatibility and significant potential for market-oriented production. High-value vegetables revealed significant untapped potential: broccoli (13,133 ha S1+S2) and green beans (12,611 ha S1+S2), despite their currently limited cultivation. Overall, 43–60% of cultivable land (arable land, irrigated arable land, and backyards) falls within suboptimal suitability classes (S3–NS), indicating substantial potential to enhance agricultural production through targeted crop reallocation. Specifically, improving crop–land matching within existing arable land and prioritising the reuse of abandoned farmland for high-value crops such as broccoli and green bean can enhance productivity and farm income. A widespread deficiency of nitrogen and phosphorus indicates that improved soil fertility management is a prerequisite for successful diversification. These findings provide a robust scientific basis for climate-smart agricultural planning, including crop prioritisation, diversification into high-value crops, and improved land-use efficiency in mountainous regions. • First integrated land suitability assessment for Armenia’s mountainous regions. • Soil fertility and water availability are the main limiting factors for crops. • Perennial crop suitability reflects global warming trends, with expanding suitable areas. • Broccoli and green beans considered as relatively new, high-value crop alternatives. • Future strategies should prioritize climate-adapted crops and land-use diversification.