Scenario Planning for Communications as a Tool for Proactive Crisis Management and Business Sustainability

Abstract The article examines the role of communications in crisis management and financial recovery projects. Using the cases of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse (2023) and the adaptation of Russian companies – Sberbank and Aeroflot – to sanctions pressure (2022), the study analyzes differences between reactive and proactive approaches to crisis communications. The methodological basis is a comparative case analysis that identifies factors of successful and unsuccessful communication responses. The paper demonstrates the significance of scenario planning as a project management technique that enables organizations to prepare for informational aspects of a crisis before it occurs. A five-stage model of communication scenario planning is proposed, including threat identification, risk assessment, stakeholder analysis, development of communication materials, and protocol testing. The research findings can be applied in developing communication components for crisis management projects and organizational transformation programs.