What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim was to assess the IBCG model's effectiveness in predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) for intermediate risk NMIBC in a national cohort.

April 19, 2026Open Access

Application of the International Bladder Cancer Group prediction model for recurrence-free survival on a national cohort of primary intermediate risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer

Key Points

The aim was to assess the IBCG model's effectiveness in predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) for intermediate risk NMIBC in a national cohort.
Applied IBCG prognostic model to a Swedish population-based cohort of IR NMIBC diagnosed in 2013-2014.
Stratified patients into low-risk and intermediate-risk groups based on tumor characteristics.
Estimated 1- and 3-year RFS probabilities using statistical analysis.
Among 710 patients, 46% were categorized as low-risk and 54% as intermediate-risk.
1-year RFS probabilities were 19% for low-risk and 27% for intermediate-risk patients.
3-year RFS probabilities were 41% for low-risk and 45% for intermediate-risk patients.
Sensitivity analysis showed no significant RFS difference between the risk groups.

Abstract

The International Bladder Cancer Group (IBCG) has proposed a prognostic model for intermediate risk (IR) non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) for clinical decision-making. We applied the IBCG IR model in a population-based Swedish setting in patients with primary IR NMIBC diagnosed 2013-2014 in BladderBaSe 2.0. Patients were stratified into low-risk (unifocal and tumour size < 3 cm) and intermediate-risk (multiple and/or tumour size ≥ 3 cm) for estimation of 1- and 3-year recurrence-free survival (RFS). Among 710 patients with IR NMIBC, 329 (46%) and 381 (54%) were categorized as low- and intermediate-risk, respectively. Probabilities of disease recurrence or death at 1 and 3 years in low-risk patients were 19% (95% confidence interval CI: 15-23) and 41% (95% CI: 35-46), versus 27% (95% CI: 22-31) and 45% (95% CI: 40-50) in the intermediate-risk group. In a sensitivity analysis including only patients receiving serial adjuvant instillations (n = 152) the corresponding probabilities at 1 and 3 years were 19% (95% CI: 10-28) and 33% (95% CI: 22-43) versus 15% (95% CI: 7-23) and 31% (95% CI: 20-41), respectively. Thus, no clinically meaningful difference in recurrence-free survival was observed between International Bladder Cancer Group low- and intermediate-risk groups in this population-based primary non-muscle invasive bladder cancer setting.

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