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April 20, 2026Open Access

Effectiveness of flood forecasting and early warning system in the affected communities of Indus River Basin, Pakistan

NJNaveed JamalUniversity of Peshawar ARAtta RahmanNanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Key Points

The aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of flood forecasting and early warning systems in controlling floods.
Data was collected through sampling, interviews, focus group discussions, and questionnaires.
Primary information was gathered from 213 respondents, alongside secondary data from stakeholders and line agencies.
Data analysis involved descriptive statistics and qualitative analysis.
Flood forecasting and early warning systems are essential for mitigating flood damage.
Challenges include limited coverage of radar networks and improper dissemination of flood warnings.
The effectiveness of flood early warning systems can be improved by overcoming institutional and community challenges.

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the effectiveness of flood forecasting and early warning systems (FF to highlight the challenges faced by the existing FF&EWS, and to improve the effectiveness of FF&EWS in the flood affected regions. Data were collected from both sources. Primary data includes sampling, interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) and questionaries from a total of 213 respondents. The secondary data sources are stakeholders and line agencies. The collected data were analyzed through descriptive statistics and qualitative analysis. The analysis reveals that FF&EWS is an important non-structural mitigation measure to reduce the damage of floods. FEWS is the main responsibility of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), which predict flood forecasting through a developed weather radar station. After flood forecasting, an important stage is dissemination of flood early warning (FEW) to the affected communities. Key findings of the study highlight that improper FEW in remote areas, limited coverage by radar network, terrain and human encroachment has aggravated the consequences of floods. The research concludes that the study area is out of the range of existing FEWs. The effectiveness of FEW in the Indus Basin can be improved by addressing the challenges faced by institutions and communities. Based on analysis suggestions and recommendations are formulated to improve FF&EWS in Indus Basin, Pakistan.

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