Abstract Quantifying the relative importance of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in shaping the spatial structure of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is crucial for climate predictability. However, different climate modes often work together, and single data and conventional methods cannot uncover their relative effects. Using multiple high‐resolution reanalysis data sets and the Random Forest model, the spatiotemporal variability of ENSO and IOD influences across ITF inflow channels are systematically evaluated. Results show distinct dominance periods: ENSO prevails during 1993–2005 (median relative importance, MRI >60% in all channels), IOD dominates during 2002–2010 (Median Relative Importance >55% in the Sulawesi Sea and Maluku Sea), and both modes co‐dominate during 2014–2019 due to increased concurrent El Niño and positive IOD events. Mechanistically, sea level anomaly gradients driven by large‐scale climate forcing modulate upper‐layer transport, whereas wave‐induced thermocline variations affect lower‐layer dynamics. During single‐driver periods, anomalies in volume, heat, and freshwater transport are closely tied to concurrent flow field changes. These results demonstrate that ENSO and IOD differentially regulate the spatial structure of ITF variability through distinct oceanic channels.
Li et al. (Wed,) studied this question.
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