Spatial Dynamics of Climate-Driven Suitability for Africa’s Rainfed Staple Crops

Africa’s rainfed agricultural systems are highly exposed to climate change, making shifts in temperature and rainfall a major concern for staple-food crop production. Using a MaxENT ecological niche modelling approach with crop occurrence, elevation, soil and climatic predictors, this study assessed current and future suitability for rainfed maize, millet and sorghum under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The projections show a notable expansion of 11.1–22.0% in areas suitable for maize cultivation, and a decline of 1.6–7.3% in areas suitable for production of millet and sorghum, indicating likelihood for increased food-security risks in regions dependent on drought-tolerant cereals. These differing shifts highlight the need for targeted adaptation measures, including crop diversification and region-specific planning to help sustain crop production under a changing climate.