Energiepreisschock überlagert Fiskalimpuls – Wachstumskräfte versiegen

Abstract Following a downturn that lasted several years, a recovery began in Germany during the past year. While export-oriented industry struggled to make headway amid further declines in competitiveness, high geopolitical uncertainty, and persistent trade policy burdens, the recovery was driven largely by the domestic economy. The energy price shock triggered by the war in Iran is likely to dampen the recovery in Germany, but not bring it to a complete standstill. This will be ensured by the significantly expansionary fiscal policy, which primarily supports companies in the defense industry and civil engineering. In most of the manufacturing sector, however, the situation remains subdued. Gross domestic product is expected to grow by 0.6% this year and by 0.9% in 2027, compared with a rise of just 0.2% last year. Compared to the Joint Economic Forecast of Autumn 2025, the institutes have thus revised their forecast downward by a significant 0.6 percentage points for the current year and by 0.4 percentage points for the coming year.