The relevance principle from a causal perspective

The relevance principle plays a central role in the methodology of forensic science. Recently, it has been argued that it should also be applied in other scientific disciplines. The principle rules which information experts should use for evaluating evidence. A precise formulation has been given in terms of probabilistic relevance. In this paper, we focus on this probabilistic version and put it to the test by applying it to different causal scenarios and by discussing it to the background of two different assumptions about the trier of fact: the trier of fact as a causal reasoner vs. the trier of fact being agnostic about the causal structure. Finally, we point to problems with the probabilistic version of the relevance principle and propose improved versions that capture the principle’s underlying idea better than the purely probabilistic version does.