The Energy-Growth Nexus: Pathways to Sustainable Decarbonization in South Asia

South Asia has experienced a persistent rise in per capita carbon dioxide emissions despite growing policy attention to low-carbon development. Against this background, this study examines how economic growth, energy intensity, renewable energy, urbanization, and trade openness shape per capita carbon dioxide emissions in six South Asian countries over the period 1990–2023. Grounded in the STIRPAT framework, the analysis combines fixed-effect estimation with two-step system generalized method of moments to address unobserved heterogeneity, endogeneity, and emissions persistence. The results show that economic growth remains strongly carbon-intensive, with gross domestic product per capita exhibiting a near-proportional elasticity with emissions. Energy intensity significantly increases emissions, while renewable energy reduces them. Urbanization exerts a positive but smaller effect, whereas trade openness remains statistically fragile. The findings also indicate strong emission persistence, underscoring the importance of early intervention. The study contributes to the regional environmental literature by providing an integrated and dynamic assessment of South Asia’s growth–energy–emissions nexus and by introducing a composite policy-support dimension into the empirical framework. The results offer practical implications for energy efficiency reform, renewable expansion, and climate-sensitive urban policy in developing economies.