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May 4, 2026Open Access

China-Japan Confrontation in the East China Sea and Its Impact on ASEAN’s Geopolitical Architecture

Key Points

This article examines the influence of the China-Japan confrontation in the East China Sea on ASEAN's geopolitical framework.
Analyzes events from 2012 to 2022 focused on the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute.
Applies balance of power theory, balance of threat theory, and hedging strategy frameworks.
Identifies response patterns among ASEAN countries based on threat perception and capacity.
ASEAN countries display four distinct response patterns based on varying threat levels and resources.
The confrontation challenges ASEAN's ability to maintain centrality and build consensus.
ASEAN demonstrates adaptability in response to geopolitical changes and economic interdependence.

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of the China-Japan confrontation in the East China Sea (2012–2022) on ASEAN’s geopolitical architecture and regional coordinating role. Originating from Japan’s „nationalization” of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in 2012, the China-Japan rivalry transitioned from manageable tensions to protracted strategic confrontation, creating indirect spillover effects on Southeast Asia. The study argues that this complexity stems from the intertwining of geopolitical competition and deep economic interdependence. Applying balance of power theory by Kenneth Waltz, balance of threat theory by Stephen Walt, and hedging strategy, the research demonstrates that ASEAN countries exhibit four stratified response patterns contingent upon threat perception and capacity, while ASEAN faces challenges to its centrality and consensus-building mechanisms yet demonstrates institutional adaptability.

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