Information Drift Under Structural Price Stress develops a unified diagnostic framework for understanding why food prices continue rising even as headline inflation cools. The essay integrates empirical reporting on climate‑driven supply constraints with a formal mathematical definition of information drift, expressed as a rate‑based misalignment between material economic conditions and institutional narratives. It introduces a shock‑aware structural price model, incorporating both deterministic inflation components and stochastic climate‑driven shocks, and constructs a three‑scenario probabilistic projection of food prices over the next decade. The paper also formalizes the epistemic asymmetry between households and institutions, showing how high‑frequency micro‑data (daily receipts) diverges from low‑frequency macro‑aggregates (CPI, policy guidance). Finally, it identifies measurement‑regime mismatch and strategic simplification as dual mechanisms of institutional misrecognition, situating food inflation as a privileged site for observing governance‑layer failure.
Signal Rupture (Wed,) studied this question.