This study provides an econometric investigation of Bitcoin’s return dynamics using daily data over 5.5 years from January 2020 to September 2025. This research deeply analyses the market behaviour of Bitcoin over other assets like Gold, Silver, Ethereum, Tether, Nifth50, BankNifty. In this analysis we used advanced time series and statistical models such as ARIMA, GARCH(1,1), Rolling GARCH, Half-Life estimation, and EGARCH models to evaluate conditional mean behavior, volatility clustering, persistence, asymmetric shock effects, and regime-dependent risk transmission. With the use of this models, rolling Garch reveals structural instability with persistence decline in later periods. EGARCH results asymmetric shock effects, where negative shocks increases volatility more than positive shocks. Forecasting models suggests that volatility will eventually return to its long term average, but risk is still expected to remain high for some time before normalizing. The analysis reveals strong conditional heteroskedasticity and near-integrated volatility persistence during crisis periods specific around the COVID-19 market collapse (2020), the FTX bankruptcy shock (2022), the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, and the 2025 Bybit exchange hack. Using various data visualizations, the analysis reveals high risky nature of Bitcoin trade with high returns compared to other assets. Deep learning model LSTM reveals the nature that closing price of next day is unpredictable as obvious in case of such high volatile nature of Bitcoin. These findings underline the importance and nature of trading in Bitcoin for individuals who are thinking to invest.
Ashfaque et al. (Mon,) studied this question.