The Oscillating Blackout: Bipolar Disorder as a Bistable Expression of a High-Fidelity Inference Phenotype

Abstract The pathophysiology of Bipolar Disorder (BD) remains elusive under linear models of monoaminergic dysregulation, failing to explain its defining feature: the spontaneous oscillation between polar states. We redefine Bipolar Disorder (BD) as a High-Fidelity Inference Phenotype operating within a structurally narrowed safety margin, a condition we term Constitutional Darkness. In contrast to linear models of mood decay, we propose that BD represents a non-linear threshold failure in a system optimized for high-resolution sensing of environmental synchronizers (Zeitgebers). Using the Informational Blackout framework, we demonstrate how genetic variants in the melatonin-SOCS3-KCC2 axis (e. g. , MTHFR, ASMT) limit the bioenergetic bandwidth of the system. When Faced with signal desynchronization, this high-precision architecture does not degrade gracefully; instead, it performs a bistable switch—a mathematically faithful transition between polar states of failure. Mania and depression are thus characterized not as "dysregulations, " but as discrete operational modes of a system that treats informational noise as a critical exception. This framework shifts the therapeutic paradigm from symptomatic modulation to upstream signal architecture restoration and the expansion of the homeostatic safety margin. Keywords: Informational Blackout series ; bipolar disorder; bistability; melatonin-SOCS3 Axis; active inference; leptin resistance; polygenic risk architecture; threshold hypersensitivity