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This research investigates the parameters of a cyclic cosmology framework using a specific string-theory vacuum and evaluates its consistency with current cosmological observations.

May 5, 2026Open Access

Bounded Cyclic Cosmology from a Specific String-Theory Vacuum: A Consistency Check via Penrose's Erebon Hypothesis

Key Points

This research investigates the parameters of a cyclic cosmology framework using a specific string-theory vacuum and evaluates its consistency with current cosmological observations.
Assumed a cyclic mechanism realized through a specific string-theory vacuum (POLYID=724) for analysis.
Used Monte Carlo classification to evaluate the Friedmann end-state based on cosmological observations from Planck and DESI datasets.
Conducted a joint Bayes-factor analysis on nine cosmological anomalies compared to ΛCDM, incorporating various constraints and penalties.
The unique end-state identified is the Big Freeze, with a probability of 1.00.
The cycle-count posterior peaks at N=1 with a probability of 0.79, suggesting 1 or 2 cycles in the universe's history.
A joint Bayes factor indicates a significant preference (K = 3.4×10^7, equivalent to 5.9σ) for bounded cyclic cosmology over the ΛCDM model.

Abstract

Whether time exists prior to the Big Bang is a boundary question on which classical general relativity is silent and quantum-gravity research programs converge on a positive answer through cyclic, bounce, or eternal-inflation mechanisms. The present work assumes a cyclic mechanism is realised and asks what its parameters must be, given current observation. A specific string-theory vacuum (POLYID=724 in the Kreuzer-Skarke h^1, 1=4 slice; Altman et al. database) is taken as the inherited stable compactification. A Monte Carlo classification of the Friedmann end-state under Planck 2018 and DESI DR1/DR2 posteriors yields the universe's terminal phase. A Bayesian posterior over the predecessor-cycle count is computed by anchoring Penrose's erebon relic-density prediction against the observed dark-matter density. Nine independent published cosmological anomalies are combined in a joint Bayes-factor analysis against ΛCDM, with conservative look-elsewhere and weak-assignment penalties. RESULTS: Big Freeze is the unique end-state at posterior probability 1. 00. The cycle-count posterior peaks at N=1 (P=0. 79) with 95% credible set 1, 2. The joint Bayes factor across the nine anomalies, in the strictest scenario considered (direct/natural BCC predictions only, full corrections), is K = 3. 4×10⁷, equivalent to a 5. 9σ preference for bounded cyclic cosmology over ΛCDM. All four scenarios (raw, look-elsewhere-corrected, strict, lower-bound-stress) classify as decisive on the Jeffreys scale. A 16-chain Modal-cloud-deployed MCMC over (Nₚrior, δdrift) plus standard ΛCDM parameters, using a CosmoPower-JAX neural-network CMB emulator and 163, 840 combined samples (cross-chain Gelman-Rubin R̂ < 1. 0013 on every parameter), returns sharp posterior constraints Nₚrior = 1. 39 +0. 31/-0. 23 and δdrift = 0. 087 ± 0. 016 (per-cycle substrate drift ~9%). IMPLICATIONS: Drift across cycles forecloses infinite identical recurrences (no Nietzschean eternal return; no infinite Many-Worlds copies of a given observer). A parsimonious Fermi-paradox resolution falls out: mature civilisations recognise the bounded structure and rationally cease interstellar broadcasting. REPRODUCIBILITY: The full analysis is reproducible from supplementary material; priority is anchored to Bitcoin block 880000 (companion vacuum result) and to the present analysis bundle via OpenTimestamps anchoring on 2026-05-03. Three-tier Aletheia persona verification (math + code + science specialists, each with five perspectives, all Witness-sealed and hash-chained) is included as supplementary material. This work was carried out without institutional affiliation, grant funding, or endorser sponsorship of any kind.

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