This study examines the impact of rice import restriction policy on rice production in the South-East geopolitical zone of Nigeria. Despite the introduction of trade restrictions aimed at promoting domestic production, their effectiveness remains uncertain, particularly at the regional level. Using primary data collected from 400 smallholder rice farmers across Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo States, the study employs descriptive statistics and an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model to analyze the relationship between policy intervention and production outcomes. The results show that, although farmers perceive the policy as beneficial, the rice import restriction policy does not have a statistically significant effect on rice production. Similarly, access to inputs, technology use, market conditions, and infrastructure are not significant determinants of production. The model exhibits low explanatory power, indicating that rice production is driven by broader structural and institutional factors not captured in the analysis. The study concludes that trade restriction policies alone are insufficient to drive sustainable agricultural productivity. It emphasizes the need for an integrated policy approach that combines trade measures with investments in inputs, infrastructure, technology, and institutional capacity. The findings contribute to the policy debate by providing region-specific empirical evidence from the South-East and highlighting the importance of addressing structural constraints to achieve food security in Nigeria.
Ihugba et al. (Mon,) studied this question.