Future heatwave hotspots in India from climate projections

Abstract India has experienced a significant rise in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in recent decades. This study examines how heatwaves evolve and identifies new future hotspot regions. The bias‐corrected NASA's Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP) of CMIP6 have been categorized into three periods: Near (2021–2040), Mid‐ (2041–2060), and Far (2081–2100) future, from two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. The Multi‐Model Mean (MMM) of 26 NEX‐GDDP models has shown close matching with India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded data during 2015–2024 and effectively captures the interannual variability of heatwave indices. Relative to the historical period (1995–2014), the projections exhibit approximately five (three) times greater warming in the far future for SSP5‐8.5 (SSP2‐4.5). In the far future, the heatwave frequency and duration (days) are projected to increase by approximately five events, and ∼20 days per season at 95% confidence. The Western Himalayas are projected to become an emerging heatwave hotspot from the near future onwards, and the Northeast and Interior Peninsular regions in the far future. This study emphasizes the need to enhance predictive capabilities to develop a heatwave‐resilient nation and developing relevant policies to prioritize heat action plans.