The present study is devoted to the analysis of the influence of domestic political factors on the dynamics of Korean-Japanese relations, with a special focus on the mechanisms of the instrumentalization of historical memory in the context of electoral competition. Unlike the predominant approaches in the scientific literature that explain the escalation of bilateral contradictions through the lens of "unresolved historical issues" or the transformation of regional security architecture, this work argues that endogenous political processes play a key role in the variability of the intensity of conflict rhetoric. The subject of the study is the strategies employed by political actors in the Republic of Korea and Japan in utilizing historical narratives for the purpose of mobilizing electoral support, as well as their impact on the escalation and de-escalation of bilateral relations. Particular attention is paid to analyzing the relationship between public opinion dynamics, electoral cycles, and changes in foreign policy rhetoric. The methodological basis of the study consists of a substantive analysis of one hundred official statements from senior officials of the Republic of Korea and Japan from 2013 to 2024, as well as correlation and regression analyses of the relationship between the conflict rhetoric index, approval ratings, and the temporal distance to elections. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of the concept of externalizing domestic political problems through the instrumentalization of historical memory as applied to the analysis of Korean-Japanese relations, as well as in the proposal of a quantitative model for assessing the impact of electoral factors on the dynamics of foreign policy rhetoric. Unlike existing works that mainly limit themselves to qualitative analyses of the content of historical disputes, the article systematically conducts an empirical test of the hypothesis regarding the connection between domestic political variables and the intensity of conflict rhetoric for the first time. The research findings demonstrate a statistically significant negative correlation between the level of public support for ruling administrations and the degree of historical themes utilized in foreign policy discourse, as well as confirm the strengthening of this effect as electoral cycles approach. The conclusions drawn allow for a rethinking of the nature of the Korean-Japanese conflict's persistence, viewing it not only as a consequence of historical disagreements but also as a tool for domestic political mobilization embedded in the institutional logic of political competition.
Alexandra Valer'evna Kolesnikova (Sun,) studied this question.