This article examines the evolution of Russia's strategic position on the South China Sea disputes and its possible future trajectory as cooperation deepens among Russia, China, and ASEAN. The analysis draws on official agreements, treaties, and public statements by Russian leadership from different periods. The geopolitical environment in the South China Sea has grown increasingly complex in recent years, contributing to greater strategic uncertainty. At the same time, Western sanctions have compelled Russia to reorient its foreign economic policy toward Asian markets. In this context, Russia’s primary interest is stability: stable conditions are necessary for developing trade and economic ties with Asia and fostering a more predictable regional environment. The research employs historical-political and systemic approaches, supplemented by an analysis of official documents. The article reaches the following conclusions. Russia’s position on the South China Sea disputes shifted from supporting China’s territorial claims to developing cooperation with Vietnam. In the post-Soviet period, this evolved into pragmatic neutrality, which has persisted to the present day. Two main groups of factors explain this evolution: national interests and the international structure. Over the long term, Russia would be well advised to focus on developing economic cooperation with China on the continent while minimizing its presence in the waters of the South China Sea. The scientific novelty of this study lies in identifying the mechanism of Russia's shifting position — specifically, how national interests and international structure interact to shape policy change. As a major extra-regional actor in the South China Sea, Russia has consistently worked with both China and ASEAN countries. Yet existing Russian literature offers no general explanatory mechanism for the evolution of Russia's position on the South China Sea disputes, and this work is intended to fill this gap.
Liu et al. (Wed,) studied this question.