Cascading Failures in the Global Container Shipping Network: Systemic Impacts of Escalating Disruptions in Middle Eastern Maritime Choke‐Points

ABSTRACT Geopolitical conflicts have become an increasing threat to global container shipping. This study aims to investigate the mechanisms of network cascade failures caused by waterway blockades. A cascading failure model is proposed that incorporates voyage distance constraints in vessel rerouting. It is explored how consecutive disruptions in Middle Eastern chokepoints affect cargo flow and the network resilience. The findings indicate that, constrained by the detoured distance, a branch port may evolve into a supply port that shipping companies have to call at. In light of this factor, the widespread cascading effects far exceed those of traditional neighbourhood diffusion models. With a rise in risk, the sensitivity of network resilience to port capacity allocation increases notably. Hub ports play a more crucial role in mitigating cascading failures by leveraging their substantial capacity redundancy. The findings may provide an analytical framework to facilitate early risk detection and port investment decisions.