The influence of domestic politics on transboundary water interactions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Abstract This article examines the influence of domestic politics on transboundary water conflict and cooperation in the Eastern Nile, with a particular focus on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Drawing on the Transboundary Water Interaction Nexus (TWINS) framework, the paper argues that hydropolitical relations over the GERD are best understood as a continuum of shifting conflict and cooperation shaped not only by interstate power asymmetries but also by domestic political contexts in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. The analysis demonstrates that regime legitimacy concerns, leadership transitions, and development- and water security- oriented policy priorities shape state behavior by incentivizing unilateral actions, influencing negotiation strategies, framing vulnerability narratives, and reinforcing zero-sum bargaining positions. While structural factors such as asymmetric power relations and conflicting water claims remain important, they cannot fully explain the observed water interaction patterns among the riparians. Emphasizing the underexplored role of domestic politics, the article contributes to critical hydropolitics scholarship while also highlighting the role of GERD in shaping sustainable development trajectories in the basin, with implications for equitable water access, renewable energy generation, climate resilience, and regional cooperation.