Between Reality and Utopia: Speculative Design as a Method of Architectural Forecasting

This article analyzes speculative design as a method for conceptually modeling the future, emerging at the intersection of architecture, design, and media art. Unlike approaches focused on predicting probable scenarios, this method engages with imaginary and hypothetical worlds, serving as a tool for critical reflection and cultural experimentation. The goal of the study is to identify the historical and methodological foundations of speculative design and determine its potential as a tool for sociocultural forecasting. The methodology relies on interdisciplinary analysis and includes a historical and comparative examination of the tradition of utopian thinking, a study of key manifestos of conceptual art and critical design, and the interpretation of projects at the intersection of architecture, art, and digital technologies. A systematization of examples – from the utopias of Thomas More and radical architectural groups of the 20th century to Russian "paper architecture" and contemporary research programs – allows us to demonstrate the internal evolution of the speculative approach. The key findings demonstrate its dual nature: on the one hand, speculative design opens up new horizons for imaginative design and generates alternative future scenarios; on the other, it faces limitations in scalability, funding, and institutional support, as well as the risk of aestheticization and the loss of its critical function. The conclusion emphasizes that despite the identified difficulties, speculative design remains relevant in the face of global challenges, providing architects, researchers, and educational institutions with an innovative tool for engaging with the future and developing critical scenarios for cultural and technological development.