Reliable regional climate projections are critical for anticipating agroclimatic risks under climate change, particularly in Mediterranean hotspots such as northern Morocco. This study evaluates future changes in dry and hot extremes across the Tanger–Tétouan–Al Hoceïma (TTH) region using a structured, two-step ensemble selection framework that integrates global (CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX) climate simulations, referenced to the ERA5-Land reanalysis. A variable-specific performance screening was applied to retain historically credible models for daily precipitation and temperature, followed by a selection of simulations that span the range of plausible futures in Δ T –Δ P space under SSP2–4.5/RCP4.5 and SSP5–8.5/RCP8.5 scenarios. Projected changes for the late 21st century (2080–2100 relative to 1980–2005) indicate a coherent intensification of climate extremes. The maximum length of consecutive dry days (CDD) increases across most of TTH, especially during summer and in interior areas, ranging from approximately +6 to +18 days under SSP2–4.5/RCP4.5 and reaching +12 to +25 days under SSP5–8.5/RCP8.5 in the most affected central and southern lowlands, implying greater meteorological dryness. Simultaneously, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) rises in all seasons, with the most pronounced increases along the Mediterranean coast, typically by +30 to +60 days in summer under SSP2–4.5/RCP4.5 and intensifying to +50 to +80 days under SSP5–8.5/RCP8.5, pointing to more persistent heat stress. These patterns are consistent with the region's exposure to enhanced warming and summer drying. The selected model subsets provide robust, policy-relevant insights for regional adaptation planning. The projected amplification of dry and hot extremes—spring CDD increases of 8–18 days and autumn WSDI increases of 15–35 days under SSP2–4.5/RCP4.5, strengthening further under SSP5–8.5/RCP8.5—poses significant challenges for rainfed agriculture, water security, and ecosystem resilience in TTH. These findings underscore the urgency of strengthening climate-informed strategies, including sustainable irrigation and agro-climatic zoning.
Qacami et al. (Tue,) studied this question.