The Hubble Tension as a Frame-LCORI Cocycle Signature: A First-Principles Derivation of the 8.28 Percent Cosmological Hubble-Rate Inference Discrepancy

The conventional Hubble tension — the persistent 8.3 percent disagreement between early-universe (cosmic microwave background) and late-universe (distance ladder) determinations of the Hubble constant H0 — is derived in this paper as a structural frame-LCORI cocycle signature of Universal Mechanics (UM), the framework presented in Paper 1 of this series at Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20162810. Key results developed in this paper: The cosmic redshift law in closed form: 1 + z = (1 / εshellcosmic)ΔN, where εshellcosmic ≈ 0.996934 is the cosmic-shell residue derived from the L1 vibrational genesis chain and ΔN is the structural cocycle depth. The law reproduces observed cosmological redshifts across the range z = 0.005 to z = 1100 (CMB last-scattering surface). The Hubble-rate inference discrepancy in closed form: ΔH0/H0 = (1 − εshellcosmic) · TRIUNE3 = 0.0828, where TRIUNE = 3 is the structural triplet count. Numerical evaluation gives 8.28 percent, consistent with the observed early-late H0 discrepancy of approximately 8.31 percent (Planck 2018 vs. SH0ES 2022) to within 0.4 percent relative deviation. The frame-LCORI cocycle mechanism: two observers in different LCORI registration frames (photon-channel and S-Field-channel) extract structurally distinct quantities from the same physical universe; the difference is governed by the lawful cocycle. The conventional Hubble tension is the cross-tier diagnostic of this cocycle structure, not a parameter problem requiring new fitted physics. The UM-native seven-tier distance ladder: substrate-clean methods (stellar parallax; gravitational-wave standard sirens; strong-lensing time delays; galactic dynamics; pulsar timing arrays) at the primary tiers; photon-channel methods (Cepheid + SN Ia; spectroscopic redshift) at the secondary tiers with required UM-deconvolution. Full operational protocols are given in the companion methodology document included as supplementary material. Cross-tier validation procedures: the multi-tier consistency requirement; the Hubble tension as the structural diagnostic; expected post-adoption convergence pattern in which substrate-clean tiers and UM-deconvolved photon-channel tiers converge to the substrate-clean lawful Hubble rate of approximately 67-68 km/s/Mpc. The paper enumerates eleven specific forward predictions classified by strength: three Tier 1 predictions (derivation paired with consistent witness) and eight Tier 2 predictions (derivation alone with witness pending or partial), with four predictions specifically distinguishing the structural-diagnostic reading from conventional new-physics-extension approaches. Each prediction has an explicit falsification condition. The framework's prediction is that conventional ΛCDM extensions adding new fitted physics will not reduce the early-late H0 discrepancy below the structural 8.28 percent; resolution requires methodological reordering at the level of distance-and-rate determination, replacing photon-channel primary methods with substrate-clean methods at the cosmological scale. The methodology requires no new observational facilities. All substrate-clean tiers are operational (LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA gravitational-wave network; H0LiCOW and TDCOSMO strong-lensing programs; NANOGrav and IPTA pulsar timing networks) or under construction (Einstein Telescope; Cosmic Explorer; LISA; SKA). The paper predicts that next-generation observations will confirm the substrate-clean tier consistency at the sub-percent level, with the conventional Hubble tension dissolving through methodological correction rather than through fitted new physics. The framework is the subject of USPTO Patent Application No. 19/640,364, filed 6 April 2026, with foreign filing license granted 7 May 2026. This is Paper 2 of the planned seven-paper UM/FUM series. Companion papers in preparation develop: Paper 3 (Funga-B as the dark-sector configuration), Paper 4 (twelve Z14 empirical tests across cosmological and biological shells), Paper 5 (the four laws of thermodynamics as projections of the Triune partition), Paper 6 (consciousness as observer-frame LCORI alignment with measurable biomarkers), Paper 7 (cancer as cellular LCORI Collapse with clinical biomarkers and a five-fold structural therapeutic framework). A foundational book monograph expanding Paper 1 is also in preparation.