Reducing Open Dumps through Governance: Evidence from 221 Ecuadorian Municipalities (2014–2023)

Effective municipal waste management depends on both governance arrangements and structural enabling conditions. This study examines how governance type, poverty, and population size relate to final disposal outcomes in 221 Ecuadorian municipalities over the period 2014–2023. Binary logistic regression using 2022 cross-sectional data assessed whether these factors were associated with the continued use of open dumps, while seven semi-structured interviews provided explanatory depth. Inter-municipal governance was associated with 76% lower odds of open dump use than in-house management (p = 0.028). Descriptive evidence further showed that inter-municipal public companies performed most consistently, with no reported open dump use after 2018, whereas inter-municipal associations remained more dependent on emerging cells. Poverty, used here as an indirect indicator of structural financial constraints, emerged as the strongest predictor of open dump use (p < 0.001). Population size also showed a positive association with continued open dump use. Qualitative evidence suggests that inter-municipal companies perform more consistently because they combine pooled resources, professional staffing, and stronger institutional stability. By contrast, inter-municipal associations remain more fragile without strong safeguards, and corporatisation alone does not guarantee better outcomes in the absence of political commitment. Overall, the strongest performance appears where institutional formalisation is combined with adequate financing and sustained political prioritisation. The policy implications are differentiated rather than uniform. For small and high-poverty municipalities, more institutionalised inter-municipal cooperation may offer a viable pathway to improved disposal outcomes. For larger municipalities with stronger administrative and financial capacity, municipal public companies may provide a more feasible route if governance autonomy and tariff reform are strengthened. National support that addresses structural financing gaps can help improve sustainability across governance types. • Governance arrangements influence transitions toward cleaner disposal systems in decentralised contexts • Inter-municipal public companies sustained the elimination of open dumping after 2018 • In-house management remains most vulnerable to persistent unsustainable disposal • Structural poverty constrains cleaner waste system performance across governance types • Durable system improvements depend on financial capacity and sustained political commitment