The purpose of this article is to understand the characteristics of the process of shrinkage of urban space in Russia and Kazakhstan during the post-Soviet period. The methodology of the work included an analysis of the dynamics of the number of shrinking cities and their population, the chronology of shrinkage across regions, an examination of the types of trajectories and factors of shrinkage, and an assessment of the development trends of this group of cities. An analysis conducted using census data and current population records based on the average annual population decline index (1% or more) showed that, in the 1989–2025 dynamics, urban shrinkage in these two largest post-Soviet states has both common features, determined by a high proportion of single-industry towns and sparse settlement pattern, and differences, caused primarily by natural population growth/decline and migration. In Russia, urban shrinkage processes are accelerating due to the resumption of negative demographic trends, which is reflected in the increasing number of shrinking cities and the regions where they are located. At the same time, in less urbanized Kazakhstan, the shrinkage, having peaked in the 1990s due to stressful migrations of the non-titular population, rapidly declined in the 2000s due to the resumption of demographic growth and gradually localized in a limited number of centers in the northern and eastern regions. An analysis of the types of shrinkage trajectories shows that in both Kazakhstan and Russia, cities located in agglomerations occasionally fell into this group. In both countries, the situation is improving in most regional centers, with Kazakhstan improving faster due to natural growth. Stagnant shrinkage is experienced primarily by small towns, including many district centers and industrial single-industry towns.
Кириллов et al. (Sun,) studied this question.