Stratospheric temperature, ozone, and constituent observations show significant perturbations in the 1–2 years following the January 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption. This study uses GSFC2D model simulations forced with satellite-based Hunga aerosol and water vapor anomalies to investigate the resulting impacts in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere (tropics to midlatitudes) during the 2¼ years following the eruption. The relative impacts of the volcanic forcings are quantified and compared with dynamical changes caused by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which exerts a substantial influence. Largest volcanic-driven chemical and radiative changes occur during 2022 and gradually diminish thereafter. Significant model enhancements in HNO₃ and ClO, and corresponding reductions in NO₂ and HCl, are driven by the Hunga aerosol via heterogeneous reactions, and the Hunga water vapor perturbation via gas-phase reactions. However, for model ozone, the net volcanic chemical impacts are small. For total column ozone, the aerosol-induced effects are mostly negative with maximum changes of −3 DU, while the water vapor-induced impacts are mostly positive with maximum changes of ∼+1 DU. Simulated total ozone anomalies driven by transport are significantly larger (±5–12 DU), consistent with previous studies. Model temperature anomalies are driven mainly by a combination of the QBO (±1–2 K) and radiative cooling of the Hunga H₂O plume (−2–3 K). The Hunga aerosol had a minor impact on stratospheric temperature, causing a net warming of at most +0.5 K.
Fleming et al. (Tue,) studied this question.
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