Expectation as an Emergent Variable: Generative Mechanism, Causal Efficacy, and Falsification of the Paradigm That the Past Directly Determines the Present

Author Information Author: YI BaichenCorresponding Author: YI Baichen, E-mail: ybcbenxin@163.comAffiliation: Independent Researcher, Weiyang District, Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province, 710000, P. R. ChinaORCID: 0009-0008-6242-7743Funding: NoneConflict of Interest Statement: All authors declare that there is no conflict of interest related to this article Preprint Statement: This paper is a preprint that has not undergone peer review and does not represent the final published academic conclusion. All mechanism explanations and cross-scenario applications in this paper are heuristic analogies and testable hypotheses, not confirmed scientific conclusions. Copyright License This preprint is distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International License. It is open for global sharing and redistribution under the premise of standardized attribution, non-commercial use, and no modified or derivative reproduction of the original text. Special Authorization Statement: The author of this paper specifically authorizes any individual or institution to translate the full text or part of the content of this paper into other languages. The translated version must maintain the core logic of the original text unchanged, and indicate the original source and author information. The full text of the license agreement is available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Positioning Statement of the Series Papers This paper presents an independent causal structure argument for the MFY Three-Variable Steady-State Hypothesis series research. The core framework of the MFY Hypothesis originates from an extreme 12-month case of psychological system collapse and self-healing without external professional intervention. The complete definition and derivation rules of the M-F-Y-F-M spiral ascending core model are detailed in the first paper of the series 1. The core positioning of this paper is essentially different from other papers in the series: all other papers in the series are developed within the MFY framework (cross-species validation 15, definition of sacrifice 29, theory of trust 28, etc.), while the core claim of this paper — "the past does not directly determine the present, and expectation Y is the only legitimate mediator" — is derived through a falsification reasoning structure independent of the MFY framework and holds true without reliance on the MFY framework. The relationship between this paper and the MFY framework is cross-validation: two independent reasoning paths converge on the same causal structure conclusion, mutually reinforcing the theoretical credibility of each other. Meanwhile, this paper provides the causal foundation for the MFY system: the reason why the fixed closed-loop sequence of M→F→Y→F→M₁ cannot be violated is precisely that the direct transmission from M to M₁ does not hold in all full-spectrum scenarios tested. Abstract For more than a century, the mainstream fields of life sciences and social sciences have consistently defaulted to the universal underlying causal premise that "past experiences/environments directly determine present behaviors, feelings, and physiological states". This paper systematically tests this premise through a replicable reasoning structure: we first clarify the core predictions of the mainstream paradigm, then verify them with objectively observable daily facts, and find that the predictions of the mainstream paradigm have systematic contradictions with reality. This paper proposes that the only reasonable explanation for this contradiction is: the past does not directly determine the present; the past only acts on the present indirectly by calibrating expectations for the future. Based on two core basic assumptions, this paper completes the logical consistency test and empirical fitting of the core hypothesis through 4 progressive cases covering the full continuum of "conscious decision-making - rational economic decision-making - survival-level risk decision-making - unconscious instinctive reflex", extended to cross-domain validation of trust and sacrificial behavior in the social relationship dimension. Meanwhile, this paper reveals the underlying attribution fallacy of mainstream paradigms such as classical conditioning theory and the income-determines-consumption model, and provides a targeted and implementable steady-state regulation framework for fields including individual psychological adjustment, clinical behavioral intervention, group economic behavior analysis, public safety risk prevention and control, and social relationship research. The core contribution of this paper is to provide an operable causal mechanism explanation for the core unsolved problem of "how micro historical data emerge into macro behavioral states in complex adaptive systems": expectation Y is the core emergent variable connecting micro inputs and macro states, and the generative structure of M→F→Y is the core path of emergence occurrence. The direct causal path of "past→present" does not hold in all tested scenarios, a conclusion that is completely isomorphic to the core rule of the MFY Three-Variable Steady-State Model that the anchor M cannot be directly transmitted to the ascending anchor M₁.