Impact Assessment of a Dynamic Green Certificate and Green Hydrogen Certificate Joint Mechanism on Integrated Energy Systems Based on an Asymmetric Cloud Matter-Element Model

With the increasing penetration of wind power, enhancing the renewable energy accommodation rate and reducing the carbon footprint of the IES, this study proposes a comprehensive evaluation method to assess the impact of a novel dynamic Green Certificate Trading (GCT) and Green Hydrogen Certificate Trading (GHCT) joint mechanism. First, considering the integration of the IES into the carbon trading market, a coupled dynamic GCT-GHCT framework is established. This framework links dynamic green electricity certificate revenues with green hydrogen certificate revenues, leveraging cross-subsidization to incentivize renewable energy consumption. Subsequently, an optimal operation model for the IES is formulated with the objective of minimizing comprehensive costs, which encompass energy procurement, green certificates, carbon trading, and wind curtailment penalties. A piecewise linearization approach is applied to transform the optimization model into a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming problem for efficient solving. Furthermore, based on the dispatch results, a multidimensional evaluation index system is constructed, extracting key indicators from economic, technical, and environmental perspectives. To ensure the rationality of the evaluation, a dynamic reward–penalty asymmetric cloud matter-element (ACME) comprehensive evaluation method based on game theory combinatorial weighting is introduced to calculate the index weights and the final comprehensive evaluation value. Finally, multi-scenario simulations are conducted to verify the superiority of the integrated GCT-GHCT trading framework. The results reveal that the proposed approach not only maximizes renewable energy integration but also provides a robust decision-making tool for the low-carbon transition of multi-energy systems.