Understanding Casualty Willingness to Undergo Decontamination in Hazmat/CBRN Incidents: Scenario Development Through Expert Elicitation

Effective management of hazardous materials (hazmat) and chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) incidents depends not only on technical capabilities but also on human behaviour. A critical challenge in mass decontamination operations is the potential for casualties to leave the scene before receiving treatment, increasing personal risk and the likelihood of secondary contamination. Despite its operational significance, little is known about the behavioural variables that influence whether casualties remain on scene. This paper presents a structured scenario development methodology, grounded in expert elicitation, to identify the key factors affecting casualty compliance during mass decontamination. A modified Delphi-inspired approach was used to design realistic scenarios that will inform future behavioural studies. The findings contribute to a more robust evidence base for emergency planning by integrating psychosocial variables into operational assumptions for hazmat/CBRN response.