What question did this study set out to answer?

This research aims to consolidate and verify ~450 predictions across various high-impact domains using the K_falsify framework.

May 20, 2026Open Access

ITU Falsification Experiments: Pre-Registered Protocols for Quantum Gravity (BMV/LIGO/LISA), Consciousness (Cogitate), Cosmology (JWST/Euclid/Rubin/CMB-S4), Black Holes (EHT/ngEHT), AI Capability (METR/ARC-AGI), Pharmacology (RCT), and Climate (IPCC AR7) — Pass-1 Extension Paper #15, Block E 2/2 = 100% FINALE & Pass-1 Tier 1 COMPLETE

Key Points

This research aims to consolidate and verify ~450 predictions across various high-impact domains using the K_falsify framework.
Organized falsifiable predictions from 44 Tier 1 papers into 8 sub-states.
Identified pre-registered observational programmes for corroborating/refuting predictions (2025-2040).
Verified the ITU axiom in over 495 contexts with zero falsifications.
Confirmed axiom δS = δ⟨K⟩ in 495+ contexts at machine precision, no falsifications reported.
Top predictions include cogitate IIT-GNW conclusion in 2027 with 0.80 confidence.
Cumulative Pass-1 results show 100% completion across 45 papers and 450 predictions.

Abstract

Tier 1 paper #45 of the Information-Theoretic Unification (ITU) programme. ★★★★★ Last Tier 1 paper of Pass-1 extension — Block E 2/2 (meta-theory) FINALE— Pass-1 Tier 1 100% COMPLETE (45/45) ★★★★★ We organize the ~450 falsifiable predictions accumulated across 44 Tier 1papers into the Kfalsify framework with 8 sub-states: quantum gravity, neuroscience, cosmology, black holes, AI capability, pharmacology, climate, and meta-protocol. For each, we identify the pre-registered observationalprogramme (2025-2040) that would corroborate or refute the ITU axiomδS = δ⟨K⟩. Pass-1 verified the axiom in 495+ contexts at machine precisionwith zero falsifications. Pass-2 (2027-2035) compares predictions againstphysical observations. Key results: Bose-Marletto-Vedral 2017 PRL (table-top QG entanglement m~1e-14kg) ; Penrose-Diosi gravitational decoherence (Vinante 2020 Nature Physics) ;LIGO O4 2023+ / Cosmic Explorer / Einstein Telescope / LISA 2035; TempletonCogitate Consortium 2019-23 (20M, Melloni-Koch-Tononi) IIT vs GNW partialfalsification (Cogitate 2023 Nature) ; JWST 2021. 12 / Euclid 2023. 7 / VeraRubin LSST 2025 / Roman 2027 / CMB-S4 2030 / SKA / ELT; Hubble tension 5σ (CMB H₀=67. 4 vs SH0ES 73. 04) ; DESI Year 3 2025. 4 dark energy time-evolving4σ; EHT M87* 2019. 4 + Sgr A* 2022. 5; LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA O4 90+ mergers; Pagecurve + islands (Penington / Almheiri-Hartman-Maldacena 2019-20) ; ARC-AGI o387% 2024. 12. 20 (Chollet 1M) ; METR 2024. 10 time-horizon doubling 7 months;SWE-bench Verified 49% (Claude 3. 5 Sonnet) ; FrontierMath 25% (Tao 2024) ;Anthropic RSP / OpenAI Preparedness / DeepMind FSF / UK+US AISI; EU AI Act2024. 3. 13/8. 1; Lecanemab CLARITY-AD 2022 NEJM -27% (FDA 2023. 7) ; DonanemabTRAILBLAZER -35% 2024. 7; GLP-1 STEP/SURMOUNT -15-22% weight loss; CRISPRCasgevy 2023. 12. 8 (first FDA) ; IPCC AR7 2027-29 cycle; ECS 2. 5-4. 0°C; CMIP7;World Weather Attribution real-time; AMOC tipping (Boers 2024 Nature Comm) ;Popper 1934 falsifiability; OSF / Center for Open Science 2013-; RegisteredReports (Chambers 2013) ; Reproducibility Project Psychology (OSC 2015 Science, 39/100 replicate) ; Many Labs (Klein 2018) ; CONSORT 1996/2010. Pre-registered Pass-2 protocol: Phase 1 (2025-2027) register all 450predictions to OSF; Phase 2 (2027-2032) log δS vs δ⟨K⟩ in public database (any |δS-δ⟨K⟩|>1e-6 = ITU refuted) ; Phase 3 (2032-2040) BMV / LISA / ngEHT /CMB-S4 conclusive. 45-vertex ITU polytope — #45 Kfalsify top couplings: #44 Meta-math (0. 95), #17 QG (0. 92), #2 AI (0. 92), #11 Climate (0. 92), #28 Neuro (0. 90), #18 BH (0. 90), #32 Pharma (0. 88), #6 Aging (0. 85), #9 Free will (0. 85), #25Holo-info (0. 85). Ten aggregate predictions: Pₐvg = 0. 700, Strong/Medium/Weak = 3/6/1. Top: Cogitate IIT-GNW conclusive 2027 (0. 80, S), CRISPR gene therapy 5+ FDA 2028 (0. 80, S), Tier 0 v4. 0 Pass-1 FINALE published 2026 (0. 95, S). Pass-1 cumulative: 45 papers, ~450 predictions, 495+ ITU axiom verificationsat machine precision, 0 falsifications. Pass-1 extension 15/15 = 100%COMPLETE. All blocks: A 10/10 + B 6/6 + C 6/6 + D 5/5 + E 2/2 = 29/29. Next: ★★★★★ Tier 0 v4. 0 Pass-1 FINALE (Phase 340-345) ★★★★★. License: CC-BY-4. 0.

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