Against Invariance: Reflexive Agency as a Structural Limit of Computational Political Modeling

Key Points

• The central aim is to explore how the reflexivity of strategic actors undermines computational political modeling.
• Theoretical framework analysis of political processes through computational modeling.
• Examination of nuclear deterrence strategy and the 2016 U.S. electoral forecasting.
• Discussion of the implications of reflexivity on epistemological approaches.
• Identified that strategic actors adapt to predictive models, eroding their invariance.
• Highlighted the need for a scenario-based epistemology in political analysis.
• Showed reflexivity as a fundamental and structural limit in computational models.