A barometer of electoral change?: towards a better understanding of voter behavioural dynamics in the context of municipal by-elections in South Africa

Key Points

• The study aims to evaluate the factors influencing voter turnout in South African municipal by-elections from 2016 to 2023.
• Evaluated by-election turnout data from 2016 to 2023 in South Africa.
• Examined socio-economic and political factors impacting voting behaviour.
• Identified specific drivers such as political competitiveness, demographics, crime, and election timing.
• Turnout rates were significantly influenced by political competitiveness and demographics.
• Increased crime rates were correlated with lower voter turnout.
• The timing of elections notably affected voter engagement levels.