Local, regional, and coastwide effects of interactions between storms and relative position in tidal frame on Louisiana coastal marshes

In coastal wetlands, land area is dynamic in both space and time, and it is crucial to understand the factors that may tip the balance between wetland area loss and gain. Flooding has been shown to be a key regulator of wetland resilience to land loss through effects on vegetation health and productivity. However, the relationship between elevation and land change is complex, likely interacting with lateral processes such as edge erosion to influence land change rates. We sought to determine the role of storms, major drivers of lateral erosion, to help explain the complex relationships between elevation and land change at multiple spatial scales and improve predictions of wetland loss. We used long-term records of elevation change, water elevation, and surface wind stress together with remotely sensed land-area change datasets to determine the factors that contribute to land loss in Louisiana (USA) coastal wetlands. Our results illustrate that wetland elevation alone cannot be used as a predictor of land change. Annual time-integrated wind stress, which we used as an indicator of storminess, is an important predictor of land change and interacts with elevation to impact wetland gain or loss. The data showed high site-level variation, indicating that local factors strongly determine land change. Nonetheless, we were able to identify broad generalities at the larger scales. We found that the interaction of flooding and storminess varied among geographic regions along the coast. In the Delta Plain region of the coast, sites that are frequently flooded (low elevation) were more likely to experience land gain in stormy years and land loss in calm years. Conversely, sites that were frequently drained (high elevation) had greater land loss during stormy years, presumably due to wind-wave erosion. This trend was not observed in the heavily managed Chenier Plain region, where perpetually flooded wetlands gained land during stormy years, likely due to wind-driven drainage of the marsh. Together, these results illustrate that models of wetland vulnerability based upon elevation change or storm effects alone are too simple and will not capture observed trends in land change. Incorporating additional factors such as wind stress and management status can improve predictions of coastal wetland loss and our understanding of the mechanisms controlling resilience of these ecosystems.