The Doomsday Argument: Anthropic Reasoning and the Future of Humanity

This philosophical review provides a comprehensive analysis of the Doomsday Argument — a provocative thought experiment suggesting that humanity’s future is likely much shorter than commonly assumed based on our temporal position among all humans who will ever live. The paper traces its origins (Carter, Leslie, Gott, Bostrom), formalizes the argument under Self-Sampling Assumption (SSA) and Self-Indication Assumption (SIA), examines major criticisms (reference class problem, prior information objection), explores connections to anthropic paradoxes (Boltzmann Brain, youngness paradox, anthropic shadow, measure problem), and discusses implications for existential risk assessment and long-termism. An excellent resource for researchers in philosophy of science, cosmology, and existential risk studies.