It is crucial to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of habitat quality, which is highly sensitive to land use change. Sea-level rise and rapid urbanization are major driving forces of this change, yet their coupled impacts on future habitat quality remain poorly quantified, particularly in highly urbanized coastal regions such as the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). This study develops an integrated framework combining the Dyna-CLUE (Dynamic Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model and SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model), incorporating local sea-level rise data and climate projections under the SSP3–7.0 scenario to simulate land use transitions and their impacts on coastal land use patterns and habitat quality across short-, medium-, and long-term periods. The results indicate that (1) by the end of the 21st century, accelerated urban expansion is projected to dominate land use change, with associated declines in habitat quality; (2) sea-level rise exerts heterogeneous effects on coastal wetlands, with wetland area increasing by 3232 ha between 2020 and 2050, followed by a decrease of 4110 ha by 2100, potentially contributing to habitat degradation; and (3) between 2020 and 2100, the proportion of lower-grade habitats will increase from 14.59% to 27.60%, whereas higher-grade habitats will decline from 5.49% to 4.47%. These findings highlight the need to regulate urban expansion, accommodate coastal wetland migration, and prioritize the conservation of high-quality habitats. The proposed framework provides a context-specific analytical approach for scenario-based assessment of land use management under combined urbanization and climate change pressures.
Zhu et al. (Wed,) studied this question.
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