Abstract Since 2023, Agroforestry (AF) is recognised as eligible for direct payments in Germany under the Common Agricultural Policy in the form of annual financial support (Eco Schemes) and regionally variable investment support. However, AF adoption remains low, indicating that Germany is not reaching its AF targets. We investigate whether current and proposed funding schemes sufficiently increase the comparative advantage of AF over arable cropping to improve its financial attractiveness for German farmers. Using Decision Analysis (DA) and probabilistic modelling, we assess the plot-scale economic performance of a silvoarable system integrating apple trees with arable crops. We use Monte Carlo simulations to compute the Net Present Value of the decision to implement the AF system across 10 funding scenarios, including region-specific schemes and one proposed by the German AF Association (DeFAF). Using Value of Information (VoI) analysis, we identify key uncertainties and assess the informative value of our model across various simulation lengths. Our results show a minimal effect of all current funding schemes across simulation lengths. Only the DeFAF-suggested scheme makes AF the preferable option in intermediate time frames (10 years), while the baseline scenario remains preferable in all other scenarios. Over longer periods (15–20 years), AF becomes economically viable in all scenarios, although outcome uncertainty increases. VoI analysis identifies expected apple yield and market prices as decision-relevant uncertainties. Our findings highlight the importance of time-sensitive, outcome-driven support measures that account for farmers’ economic constraints. We show that DA can support funding evaluation, by informing effective targeted support schemes for land-use transitions.
Swatek et al. (Tue,) studied this question.
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