Cultivated Land “Non-grain” Rectification is reshaping crop allocation across China, yet whether the policy promotes or impedes agricultural growth remains contested. This paper argues that the same uniform regulation generates spatially heterogeneous outcomes along a continuous topographic relief: strict enforcement on contiguous plain farmland raises compliance costs for horticultural production and displaces it toward higher-elevation counties, where land-use rules bind less tightly and micro-climates favor cash crops. Using a panel of 2077 Chinese counties from 2019 to 2023, we construct a municipal-level measure of rectification intensity from government work reports and examine how its effect varies with county-level terrain relief. The results show that the marginal effect of policy intensity on agricultural value added rises monotonically with terrain, turning from negative in flat plains to increasingly positive beyond 0.5–1.0 km of relief; at the sample mean a one-standard-deviation increase in policy intensity raises agricultural value added by about 0.36 percent, and at 2 km of relief by 1.16 percent. The mechanism is spatial reallocation, not land expansion. Rectification shrinks horticultural area in plains and expands it in mountains. A Moran’s I test confirms this: counties with very different terrain show opposite changes in orchard cover. Further heterogeneity tests indicate that rectification primarily promotes the relocation and expansion of fruit orchards toward higher-relief counties. The growth effect is stronger where transport networks are denser, whereas water endowment does not significantly moderate the effect. Results are robust to alternative keyword classifications, concurrent-policy controls, and two instrumental-variable strategies.
Gao et al. (Thu,) studied this question.
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