How the US should re-arm in the Asia-Pacific: balancing deterrence and reassurance

Abstract How can stable cross-Strait deterrence be maintained in light of China’s growing capacity to achieve forcible reunification with Taiwan? Conventional policy wisdom advocates upgrading US military capabilities and signaling a firm US commitment to Taiwan to bolster deterrence. However, such measures may be counterproductive: if Beijing sees a closing window for reunification in the face of projected US military upgrades and US signals of resolve that may be interpreted as support for Taiwanese independence, it may resort to preventive use of force. This article argues that it is in the interests of all parties for the US to implement military upgrades with moderation and subtlety, while also reassuring China that future reunification remains possible by firmly supporting the one-China policy and reversing economic decoupling. Thus far, the US has departed from these prescriptions and has enacted policies unlikely to produce the intended deterrent effect and bolster regional stability.