Digital Governance and Artificial Intelligence as Determinants of Administrative Discretion and Decentralisation in Nigeria

Abstract This study critically examines the intersection of digital governance, administrative discretion, decentralisation, and artificial intelligence (AI) in Nigeria from a public administration perspective. Nigeria stands at a critical juncture where three transformative governance reforms digitalisation of public services, decentralisation of authority to local governments, and deployment of AI for administrative decision-making are unfolding simultaneously, yet their interconnections remain undertheorised and empirically underexplored. Drawing on a qualitative analysis of policy documents, case studies of AI deployment in anti-corruption and local governance, and secondary data from the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) operations, the study identifies a fundamental paradox: digital governance and AI offer unprecedented opportunities to enhance transparency, reduce administrative discretion arbitrariness, and strengthen decentralised accountability, yet their effectiveness depends critically on the very institutional capacities and political will that digitalisation is supposed to overcome. The study finds that AI deployment in Nigeria has achieved measurable gains in fraud detection (47-50% increase), investigation timeline reduction (50-65%), and asset tracing (78% increase in recovery value), but these gains are systematically constrained by data quality problems (30-40% false positive rates), technical infrastructure weaknesses (15-20% system downtime), personnel skill gaps (less than 50% capability utilisation), legal uncertainty, and political interference affecting 15-20% of high-profile cases. The study concludes that digital governance and AI can catalyse genuine administrative transformation, but only when deployed as part of integrated institutional reforms addressing data governance, capacity building, legal frameworks, and political accountability.