Does regional context affect populist voting? A comparative multilevel analysis from Czechia and eastern Germany

This study examines the relationship between regional left-behindness and populist voting behaviour in post-socialist contexts, addressing gaps in the 'geography of discontent' literature. Using multilevel analyses, we investigate how dimensions of regional disadvantage affect support for populist parties in Czechia (ANO, SPD, and KSČM) and Germany (AfD), drawing on the Czech Household Panel Survey 2023 and General German Social Survey 2023. Our research contributes by applying a multidimensional approach to regional left-behindness, focusing on under-researched post-socialist areas, employing multilevel models linking individual voting preferences to regional context, and exploring age-sensitive contextual effects through cross-level interaction analyses. Findings reveal that regional context explains only a small portion of variance in populist voting behaviour, challenging the prominence of geographical explanations in existing literature. Whilst people in regions with disadvantaging living conditions are more likely to support populist parties, effects vary considerably by country and party. ANO voting was associated with lower economic prosperity, reduced social inclusion, and lower population density. SPD support was additionally linked to lower relative expansion values. AfD voting showed weak associations with economic prosperity but strong relationships with low relative expansion and higher elderly population shares. For KSČM, we did not find independent context effects. Contrary to expectations, contextual effects did not differ significantly between age groups. The study concludes that whilst regional left-behindness influences populist voting, its explanatory power has been overestimated. Future research should consider compositional and sorting effects in post-socialist regions.