Abstract This study examines the dynamic demand behavior for poultry, red meat, and fish in Saudi Arabia over the period 1990–2024, employing the dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System (ECM–AIDS) framework. The analysis relies on official annual data to estimate both short-run and long-run expenditure share equations, as well as own-price, cross-price, and expenditure elasticities for the three meat groups. The empirical results demonstrate strong explanatory power in the short run, with adjusted R² values of 0.888 for poultry and 0.865 for red meat, while the relatively lower value for fish reflects its modest share in total meat expenditure. The error correction terms are negative and statistically significant across all equations, confirming the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship and indicating an annual adjustment speed of approximately 28%. In the long run, the model exhibits a high degree of goodness of fit, with adjusted R² values exceeding 0.90. Short-run own-price elasticities indicate that demand for poultry and red meat is price inelastic, while fish demand is also inelastic but relatively less responsive. In the long run, price elasticities increase moderately, reflecting greater consumer adjustment over time. Cross-price elasticities confirm substitution relationships among the different meat types. Expenditure elasticities reveal that poultry demand is more responsive to income growth, while red meat and fish exhibit relatively lower income responsiveness. Overall, the findings indicate a gradual structural shift in food consumption patterns in Saudi Arabia toward poultry, reflecting evolving dietary preferences and broader socioeconomic changes.
Alaa Kotb (Tue,) studied this question.