In Somaliland, a region characterized by arid/semi-arid climates, rain-fed maize production is a cornerstone of food security but remains highly vulnerable to climate variability. While the general impacts of climate on agriculture were known, a quantitative, long-term analysis of these dynamics is critically lacking for this region. This study bridged this gap by evaluating the specific impacts of precipitation and temperature variations on maize production in the Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Togdheer regions over a 28-year period. Annual maize production data (1997–2024) and CRU gridded climate data (precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature) were analyzed. The methodology involved a multi-step approach: (1) trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test, (2) preliminary correlation analysis using Spearman’s rank test, and (3) a definitive spatio-temporal model using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). The INLA model was specified to account for spatial dependencies between regions and temporal autocorrelation (AR1), with climate variables included as fixed effects. Trend analysis revealed that maize production lacks a significant long-term linear trend (p > 0.05), highlighting that production is primarily driven by high inter-annual volatility. While precipitation remained trendless, a significant warming trend in maximum temperature was detected in Togdheer (0.043 °C/year, p < 0.001). The INLA model demonstrated that production is highly sensitive to climate variability. Annual precipitation and maximum temperature showed strong positive effects, increasing production by 77.92% and 81.86% per standard deviation (SD) increase, respectively. In contrast, minimum temperature had a severe negative impact, with a 1-SD increase in nighttime warmth resulting in a 38.52% decrease in production. Climate variability is a significant driver of maize production in Somaliland, but its effects are complex and only revealed through advanced modeling that accounts for spatial and temporal structures. The findings underscore the critical importance of water availability and highlight the often-overlooked detrimental impact of rising nighttime temperatures on crop yields. These results provide an essential evidence base for developing targeted climate adaptation strategies, such as promoting water harvesting and introducing heat-tolerant maize varieties, to enhance agricultural resilience and food security in the region.
Hussein et al. (Wed,) studied this question.