ABSTRACT This research analyzed how tariff arrangements and water management strategies can act as public policy instruments, reconciling conservation, revenue stability, and cost recovery. A multimethodological approach, combining Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) and System Dynamics (SD), was adopted and applied to the urban water supply system associated with the Gramame River Basin, operated by the Companhia de Água e Esgotos da Paraíba (CAGEPA), which supplies approximately 70% of the Metropolitan Region of João Pessoa, Brazil. Simulations covered the period from 2013 to 2022 and utilized data from the utility company, official databases, and expert contributions. The results show that gradual tariff adjustments, particularly for large residential consumers, combined with loss control programs, simultaneously favor financial sustainability and water resource conservation. The reduction in losses significantly increased the volume available in the water balance, thus reducing the need for new investments. The Monte Carlo sensitivity test confirmed the relevance of per capita water demand and the distribution loss index as critical variables, highlighting the interaction between pricing and operational efficiency. It is concluded that tariffs should be viewed not only as a cost recovery mechanism but also as a strategic instrument of water governance, capable of integrating environmental sustainability and demand management. The developed model provides practical support for more adaptive and financially sustainable tariff policies.
Correia et al. (Tue,) studied this question.
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