ABSTRACT This study aims to develop a model that identifies alternative scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by examining the interrelationships among the circular economy, socio-cultural, and environmental sectors, with the ultimate goal of supporting Thailand’s net-zero emissions target. Using a mixed-methods research design, the study provides a foundation for developing integrated national management strategies that promote long-term sustainability. A novel model, referred to as the Path–Probit–Logit–ARx Model (Path Analysis–Probit–Logit Model based on Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables), was developed to address the study objectives. The findings reveal that, during the period 1992–2025, the circular economy sector experienced continuous growth, which directly contributed to the steady expansion of the socio-cultural sector. The growth of both sectors also exerted a positive influence on the environmental sector. Furthermore, the environmental sector was found to have a direct positive effect on the socio-cultural sector, indicating a bidirectional relationship between these two sectors. This finding suggests that environmentally responsible societies can promote long-term ecosystem development and that environmental and social development should progress concurrently. Based on the analysis, the study identified the adoption of electric vehicles as the most sensitive and effective scenario for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Under this scenario, the growth rate of final energy consumption is reduced to 33%, while greenhouse gas emission growth decreases to 53.73%, remaining below the critical threshold of 590.05 Mt CO 2 equivalent and thereby meeting the government’s target. To enhance the policy relevance and credibility of the findings, a focus group consisting of 15 experts was conducted to validate the results. The experts confirmed the appropriateness and accuracy of the proposed scenario and agreed that it is suitable for promoting sustainable development in Thailand. However, they emphasized the need for immediate action and strong governmental support to ensure effective implementation. Therefore, the findings of this study can support evidence-based decision-making and strategic planning, contributing to the development of Thailand’s long-term national strategies through 2065.
Sutthichaimethee et al. (Mon,) studied this question.